Dates of exhaustion of our planet's economically exploitable resources, at current rates of consumption
I can see that some may wonder about my sanity.
To announce the end of iron in 2087 and that of nickel in 2048, when our planet's external core is itself a mix of liquid iron & nickel, is enough to make any one smirk.
But imagine having to drill a 6378 kilometer hole through the terrestrial crust, then through the melting mantel of lava to eventually reach the core, considering that the deepest existing oil drill can only reach 11,68 kilometers (on the russian site of Sakhalin-1 Est).
No other technology, however advanced, will be able to take the pressure (around 370 GPa) and the heat (more than 1200º C) in order to siphon off the nickel and iron from the extreme core ( the internal core being probably solid).
On the contents page from "The scarcity of metals & fossil fuels files", one can access the resources which will decline at the current rate of extraction, as regularly mentioned in the "At a sound cost" articles.
Obviously some iron will remain in terrestrial rocks, for which the extraction will require huge amounts of energy. It wouldn't be cost effective.
As for dating accuracy, it is an approximate. In truth, will 10 years more or 10 years less, or even a century really change the situation? One day, soon, we (our children, our grand-children, their children, and their grand-children will only live off recycled metals. That is it. We must change our ways, wether we like it or not.
Translation Patou Soult
"Incredible but true! The figures that give you food for thought about the squandering of Earth resources, and how to take action, individually and collectively".
This dreaded billbook, whom practically nobody has heard of (apart from the end of oil), prompts us to question the unconscious functioning of our civilization which is about to hand over to future generations a plundered Earth, emptied of its riches and of its substance.
We know the Earth isn't infinite. Its limited resources cannot meet the voracious demands of billions of humans indefinitely.By living more simply, we must anticipate the shortages of raw materials.
We must anticipate the coming shortages of raw materials, and if possible, save some for future generations by adopting a different lifestyle. Otherwise, tomorrow, all sorts of conflicts may arise to monopolize the remaining energy sources and metal deposits. And this, in less than a generation!
If we want to avoid the worst case scenario, we must be part of the solution! A new civilization must arise here and now, cleaner, thriftier, more respectful and whose aim is the happiness of all and not the self-interest of a few.
Michel Walter for Terre Sacrée (Sacred Earth), 20th July 2008.
Translation Patou Soult 8/09/08
Free of copyright with website : https://www.terresacree.org
The dreaded billbook that shatters the man in the street'2021 : end of silver
2012 : end of terbium
2018 : end of hafnium
2025 : end of indium
2028 : end of tin
2039 : end of copper
2040 : end of uranium
2048 : end of nickel
2050 : end of oil
2064 : end of platinum
2072 : end of natural gas
2087 : end of iron
2120 : end of cobalt
2139 : end of aluminium
2158 : end of coal
Is it the end of the road?
From 'Science et Vie' special edition No 243, 'Building a long term future', June 2008.
The sources of informations essentially come from the USGS (Geological ministration of the United States). Detailed documentation on each resource can be found on their website : http://minerals.usgs.gov/"
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